July Sees Slow but Steady Trickle of South Swell and Lots of World Tour Drama
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July started off slow for the South Pacific, without any major southern hemi swells lighting up Tahiti or Hawaii. That being said, there was a relatively consistent run of surfable waves for the South Shore of Oahu, ranging from longboardable to head-high or so—which was a lifesaver for anyone frothing for surf, since the North Shore has been pretty much flat and the east side has had raging onshore trade winds.
This is all pretty normal for this time of year, of course—we are now well into the heart of the summer, which means we can’t expect anything rideable up north for a couple more months. And while the lack of large south swells has been a bit of a bummer, this is also pretty typical, as the South Shore often only gets a handful of overhead swells between June and September. Fortunately, it is beginning to look like we might get a head-high+ south swell right around the end of the month and into early August—but it still remains to see how that forecast forms up.
In the meantime, the World Surf League has been chugging its way through the back end of the 2025 tour, with some interesting developments in late June and July.
Yago Dora Takes the Lead after a Big Performance in Rio
The world tour contest in Rio is always an interesting event. The waves are often sub-par beach break drivel, but every once in a while they surprise us with gaping tubes. Meanwhile, the crowds on the sand are always maximum capacity, as this is easily the most well-attended contest of the year. And, almost without fail, a Brazilian manages to put in a dominant performance.
While the Rio Pro was won by an American and an Australian—Cole Houshmand took the W for the men, while Molly Picklum picked up the win for the ladies—it was the performances by a couple of locals that really made things interesting. On the women’s side, Luana Silva stormed her way to the finals, where she was only stopped by the rampaging Aussie at the top of the rankings. The second place finish moved Silva into the top 10 and gave her a shot at making the final five world championship event, while Picklum’s win solidified her dominance of the tour. Meanwhile, Yago Dora began a late-season peak that saw him make the quarterfinals and move into the yellow jersey. This was the first time Dora—who is widely considered to be the best aerialist and the most stylish goofyfoot on tour—had led the tour this late in the seasons, and was an indicator of things to come.
Picklum and Dora Solidify Leads in South Africa
The world tour then headed to Jeffreys Bay, South Africa, where local legend Jordy Smith hoped to reclaim the yellow jersey at a wave he has historically excelled at. Unfortunately for the Saffa, Yago picked up right where he’d left off in Brazil, absolutely dominating the field from the first round and consistently putting in the best performances in pumping J-Bay. His rampage was finally stopped in the finals by the other most dominant goofy foot this year, Connor O’Leary, but by that time Yago had established a stranglehold on the yellow jersey, and he is now looking like the man to beat with one more regular season event and the world title final lying ahead.
Over on the women’s side, Molly Picklum also continued her season-long form, bashing her way to the finals, where she was finally stopped by Gabriela Bryan. Like Yago, Picklum has developed momentum at the right time, and now finds herself solidly atop the leaderboard with one and a half events left to go.
The Race for the Final Five
There is one regular season event left to be contested in August, and it’s a doozy. Teahupoo has always been one of the most exciting venues on tour, and this year it will feature not just the drama of the world’s heaviest left-hand reef pass, but also a mad scramble for a top-five year-end rating, which is essential for anyone who wants a shot at the world championship in Fiji in September. Only the top five on the men’s and women’s side will compete in a one-day championship event at Cloudbreak, so it all comes down to Tahiti for those who are still hoping to sneak in with a chance.
With one event remaining, Yago is guaranteed a spot in the finals and Jordy is pretty much safe, so both should feature in the final five showdown. Kanoa Igarashi is also looking pretty good, and will likely make the top five—although he could technically get pipped if he loses early and a number of people make big moves at Teahupoo. The men in the hot seats are Italo Ferreira and Ethan Ewing, who sit in fourth and fifth going into Tahiti and will be defending their spots against a number of highly talented surfers who are nipping at their heels. Griffin Colapinto is a few hundred points behind Ewing in sixth, while Felipe Toledo is around 3000 points behind that and Jack Robinson is another 1000 points or so behind Toledo. Considering that Toledo is a former world champ and Colapinto and Robinson have both made the top five the past few years running, you’d have to think they have a chance of unseating Italo and Ewing (particularly Robinson, who is one of the best barrel riders in the world). Toledo has historically struggled at Teahupoo, especially when the swell gets solid, so there’s a bit of a question mark over his head. Meanwhile, with Griffin only a few hundred points behind Ewing and around 1500 behind Italo, whichever of those three athletes make it the farthest in the event will likely make the top five.
On the women’s side, the top three ranked surfers (Molly Picklum, Gabriela Bryan, and Caity Simmers, in that order) have already clinched spots in the world championship finals event—although their seeding could still get a shakeup depending on their results in Tahiti. Isabella Nichols and Betty Lou Sakura currently sit in fourth and fifth on the ratings, and will have to put in big performances to hold onto their spots, as technically anyone in the top 10 could overtake them with a win at Teahupoo (assuming Nichols and Sakura lose early). With a stacked field that includes former world champions Caroline Marks and Tyler Wright, as well as proven veteran Lakey Peterson, young prodigy Erin Brooks, and the only Brazilian in the top 10 Luana Silva, it’s really anyone’s game.
Changes to the Finals Format
In late July, after the completion of the contest at J-Bay, the World Surf League announced a number of format changes for the world championship finals event in Fiji. This is the last year that the tour will end with a winner-takes-all championship event, and things will be a bit different than over the past few years. First of all, the higher seeded surfer in each round will automatically start their heat with priority. So in round one, when the fourth- and fifth-seeded surfers face off, the fourth-seeded surfer will have priority to start the heat. Then, in the next round, when the winner of that clash faces off against the third-seeded surfer, the third-seeded surfer will start with priority (and so on).
Photo from: https://www.worldsurfleague.com/
In addition, the final round (which is contested between the top-seeded surfer and whomever wins the previous round) will be slightly different this year. In the past, the final round featured a best-of-three format where a surfer had to win two heats in order to claim the world championship. This year, if the top-seeded surfer wins the first heat, they will automatically win the world title. If they lose the first heat, then it will be a best-of-three format, as in the past. The point of this change is to award the top-seeded surfer for ending the regular season with the highest point total.
The final regular season event of the year kicks off at Teahupoo on August 7, which means that by mid-August we will know who exactly will be battling it out for the championship in Fiji. We can’t wait!
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