🌊 Hawaii Weather and Surf: Is the El Niño Hype Real?
As we move into late February, the weather and surf patterns in Hawaii are telling a complex story of transitioning seasons and shifting global phenomena.
The Local Scene: Unusually Cold Waters
If you've been in the water lately and thought "this feels colder than usual" - you're not imagining it. Hawaii is experiencing persistent northeast trade winds that have been blowing out of control, often reaching 15 to 20 knots. These relentless winds have triggered an upwelling pattern, making sea surface temperatures around the islands colder than normal by a degree or two.
While Californians are enjoying warmer-than-normal waters, we're dealing with the opposite effect. It's been a miserable stretch compared to typical tropical standards, and if you've been reaching for your JPN Wetsuit more often than usual, now you know why. Even those who normally skip the wetsuit have been grabbing their Wetrash for extra protection.
The Big Shift: From La Niña to El Niño?
We're currently coming off our second La Niña winter in a row, which typically results in drier conditions. But the last of the La Niña cold is fading rapidly, and the big question is: should we believe the El Niño hype?
The Signal: Models are showing a low-pressure bias (an El Niño signal) moving toward the date line, potentially making significant headway by late March.
The Hype: Some dynamic models are predicting a strong or even "super" El Niño by fall and winter, with temperatures potentially rising 1.4 degrees or more above normal.
The Reality Check: While we're seeing Kelvin waves (pockets of warm water moving east below the surface), we're approaching the "spring unpredictability barrier" - a time when models often struggle to accurately forecast long-term shifts. Don't get too excited just yet.
What El Niño Could Mean
If this materializes, we're looking at extreme weather swings - from the current cold upwelling to potentially warmer, stormier conditions. More unpredictable swells, shifting wind patterns, and the kind of volatile ocean conditions that demand you're prepared for anything.
North Shore Forecast: Building Swell
For those hitting the North Shore, a gale dropping south from the Gulf of Alaska is driving upcoming energy:
Current Conditions: Surf has been waist-to-chest high but ragged and ugly due to those heavy northeast winds. The Florence Marine X Windshield has been getting a workout lately - those 20-knot trades aren't playing around.
Upcoming Swell:
- Tuesday (Feb 24th): Building to 14 feet
- Wednesday: Fading to 8 feet
- Thursday: Down to 7 feet
- Winds: 20-knot NE trades staying solid through Wednesday before finally fading and turning south
South Shore & Southern Hemisphere Watch
The South Shore is in a lackluster phase, typical for this time of year. To understand potential southern swell, we're tracking systems near the Antarctic fringe, specifically east of Australia and around Tahiti.
Recent developments include a gale in the Indian Ocean with 30 to 37-foot seas targeting southwestern Australia and potentially Indonesia. However, most South Pacific gales are pushing due east or falling southeast - meaning no meaningful swell radiating north toward Hawaii's South Shore at this time.
The Bottom Line
Hawaii is caught in a tug-of-war between a fading La Niña and a hyped El Niño. The North Shore has a solid mid-week pulse coming, the South Shore remains quiet, and we're all dealing with unseasonably chilly waters and stiff trade winds.
One thing's certain in these transitional times: whether it's cold upwelling now or extreme El Niño swings later, having the right gear matters. And don't let the cooler temps fool you - the Hawaii sun is still intense. Real sun cover with all-natural ingredients remains essential, even when the water feels more like Northern California than the tropics.
Stay tuned for updates as we track this evolving pattern through March and beyond.
Recent Surf Event Highlights
The past two months delivered memorable competitive moments despite challenging conditions:
H.S.A. Presents H.I.C. Prime at Makaha (January 3-11, 2026)
Local amateur competition showcasing Hawaii's up-and-coming talent on the West Side. Part of the Hawaii Surfing Association's competitive season.
Da Hui Backdoor Shootout (January 4-18, 2026)
Kala DeSoto from Oahu's West Side claimed his second Backdoor Shootout title, taking home over $10,000 in prize money. The 30th anniversary edition faced uncooperative conditions with messy swell throughout the two-week waiting period, ultimately ending with a unique 4.5-hour expression session format on the final day. Shayden Pacarro, Benji Brand, and Sheldon Paishon shared second place honors in this prestigious invitation-only event held in memory of Duke Kahanamoku.
Sunset Pro-Am (January 18-28, 2026)
Amateur and professional surfers battled it out at Sunset Beach during the challenging conditions that dominated January's weather pattern.
Lexus Pipe Challenger Presented by Billabong (February 5-6, 2026)
Men's Division: Australia's Callum Robson claimed victory in pumping 10-15 foot faces, defeating an elite final that included Maui's Eli Hanneman (who secured his 2026 Championship Tour qualification with a fourth-place finish), Griffin Colapinto, and Morgan Cibilic.
Women's Division: Kauai's Gabriela Bryan took her first Challenger Series victory in solid 4-6 foot building faces, defeating a stacked final featuring reigning World Champion Molly Picklum, 2025 Rookie of the Year Erin Brooks (who posted the event's highest single-wave score of 9.43), and rising star Anat Lelior. The competition also marked CT veteran Sally Fitzgibbons' official requalification for the 2026 Championship Tour.
H.S.A. Presents H.I.C. Prime at Maili Point (February 7-15, 2026)
Amateur competition on the Leeward Coast featuring shortboarding, longboarding, bodyboarding, and kneeboarding divisions.
Hawaii Adaptive Surfing Championships
Part of the three-stop World Adaptive Surfing Tour, showcasing the talents and athleticism of adaptive surfers from around the globe competing in various divisions.
All events faced the same persistent northeast trades, cold upwelling, and challenging swell conditions that defined January and February 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why is the water in Hawaii colder than normal right now?
A: Persistent northeast trade winds (15-20 knots) are causing upwelling, which brings colder water from deeper depths to the surface. This has made sea surface temperatures 1-2 degrees below normal for late February.
Q: What is El Niño and how will it affect Hawaii?
A: El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. If the predicted "super" El Niño materializes, Hawaii could experience warmer waters, more unpredictable swells, shifting wind patterns, and stormier conditions by fall/winter.
Q: When will the North Shore swell peak this week?
A: The swell is forecast to build to 14 feet on Tuesday, February 25th, then fade to 8 feet on Wednesday and 7 feet on Thursday. Northeast trade winds will remain strong (20 knots) through Wednesday before easing.
Q: What should I wear surfing in Hawaii during cold water upwelling?
A: During periods of cold upwelling, consider wearing a wetsuit for thermal protection. Many surfers opt for long-sleeve options or hybrid wet/rashguards for versatility in changing conditions.
Q: Are the trade winds expected to calm down soon?
A: Yes, the 20-knot northeast trade winds are forecast to remain strong through Wednesday, February 26th, before finally fading and turning south on Thursday.
Q: Is there any South Shore swell expected?
A: Currently, no meaningful South Shore swell is expected. Most Southern Hemisphere gales are tracking due east or southeast, not radiating energy north toward Hawaii. This is typical for late February.
Q: What's the "spring unpredictability barrier" in weather forecasting?
A: The spring unpredictability barrier refers to a period (typically March-May) when long-range climate models struggle to accurately predict El Niño/La Niña transitions. Forecasts made during this time are less reliable for conditions 6+ months out.
Q: Do I still need sun protection if the water is cold?
A: Absolutely! Cold water temperatures don't reduce UV radiation. Hawaii's sun remains intense year-round, so reef-safe sun protection with all-natural ingredients is essential regardless of water temperature.
Q: Who won the recent surf competitions in Hawaii?
A: Recent winners include Kala DeSoto (Da Hui Backdoor Shootout, January), Callum Robson - men's (Lexus Pipe Challenger, February), and Gabriela Bryan - women's (Lexus Pipe Challenger, February). All events faced challenging conditions with persistent trade winds and building swell.